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We compare the forecasting performances of the classical and the Minnesota-type Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR … algorithm for variable selection, estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. In this regard, we analyze the forecasting … the linear fixed coefficients classical VAR. However, we do not observe marked gains in forecasting power across the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369165
Traditionally, the literature on forecasting exchange rates with many potential predictors have primarily only … forecasting horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010640711
This paper evaluates the performance of 11 vector autoregressive models in forecasting 15 macroeconomic variables for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686906
We develop models for examining possible predictors of growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves that embrace Chinese and global trade, financial and risk (uncertainty) factors. Specifically, by comparing with other alternative models, we show that the dynamic model averaging (DMA) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010711932
’s financial stress index appear to be strong at almost all horizons and sub-periods. However, the forecasting prowess of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010891726
as nonparametric and semiparametric models in forecasting the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South …:01 to 2004:12, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models over the period 2005:01 to 2008:12. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008513007
interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting … Vector Regression (SVR) methodology that originates from machine learning. We test the forecasting ability of the proposed …-of-sample forecasting. Finally, we argue that this new methodology can be used as an early warning system for forecasting sudden house …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942822
Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011214021
(Gaussian, Lasso-LARS, Lasso-Landweber) in forecasting the U.S. real house price growth. We also compare results with forecasts …-suited model for forecasting the U.S. real house price. Among the least square models, the individual regression with house price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010711933
the random walk model, suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009370795