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June, 2013. We employ the recently developed test of causality in variance by Hafner and Herwarz (2006) and then we track …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095443
-directional causality between money and income. When we apply Granger Causality tests we find that income Granger causes money. The … causality disappears when we add interest rates. Next when we use an Error Correction Model the results of the traditional … Granger causality tests hold true in the bivariate system. But, we observe bi-causality under longer lag specifications, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773212
series. Thus, in this study, both linear and nonparametric cointegration and Granger Causality tests were conducted utilizing … a monthly data set over 1966:01 and 2011:06. Results from the linear cointegration test showed no long-run relationship … between house and stock prices. At the same time, the linear Granger causality test produced no evidence of causality running …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009401049
export as a proxy for economic growth, the results show that there is bi-directional causality between export and economic …This paper investigates the causal relationship between export and economic growth for Botswana, using quarterly data … for the period 1995.1-2005.4. It uses two measures of economic growth namely, GDP and GDP excluding export. When GDP is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773229
This paper presents an analysis of ethanol-gasoline price ratio in Brazil from 2000 to 2012. Since 2008 Brazilian Government has artificially frozen gasoline prices while prices of ethanol to the consumer were still liberated. Considering that annual inflation in Brazil is around 5% per year and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011098712
This paper analyses the statistical properties of five major precious metal prices (gold, silver, rhodium, palladium and platinum) based the fractional integration modelling framework while identifying structural breaks. We use monthly data from 1972:1 to 2013:12. Our results indicate orders of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011106154
Commodity and asset prices have a well-documented effect on economic growth, manifested through various channels. At … commodity and asset prices on the long-run economic growth is ambiguous, most of the previous researches highlight a positive … and we test the historical influence of oil, gold, housing and stock prices, over the output growth. Different from other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011267816
This paper uses the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 and from January 03, 1977 to March 24, 2014. Based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268875
This study assesses debt sustainability in South Africa allowing for possible nonlinearities in the form of threshold behaviour by fiscal authorities. A long historical data series on the debtto- GDP ratio and models with fixed and time-varying thresholds allowing the level of debt to vary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095446
The persistence property of inflation is an important issue for not only economists, but, especially for central banks, given that the degree of inflation persistence determines the extent to which central banks can control inflation. Also, not only is the level of inflation persistence that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095454