This paper derives the econometric restrictions imposed by the Barro and Gordon (1983) model of dynamic time inconsistency on a bivariate time-series model of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and tests these restrictions based on quarterly data for...

This paper exploits the Lucas’ (1973) signal extraction model to study the effect of uncertainty in the output-inflation trade-off on inflation, using a monetary model with asymmetric central bank preferences over inflation and output. We show that the implication of the uncertainty is...

This paper examines the causal relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and equity market uncertainty (EMU) in the US using linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. We use daily data on the newly developed indexes by Baker et al. (2013) covering 1985:01:01 to 2013:06:14....

This paper investigates whether changes in monetary transmission mechanism respond to variations in asset prices. We distinguish between bull and bear markets and employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the monetary policy in relation to housing and stock...

This study provides empirical evidence of aggregate, anticipated and unanticipated and asymmetric (positive and negative) effects of monetary policy on real agricultural prices in South Africa over the monthly period of 1970:01-2010:12. For this purpose, we use the Vector Autoregressive (VAR)...

This paper investigates the existence of significant spillovers from the housing sector onto the wider economy for the seven major OECD countries using Uhlig's (2005) agnostic identification procedure. This method allows identifying a housing demand shock in a six-variable VAR model by imposing...

This paper sets out to investigate the process through which monetary policy affects economic activity in Malawi. Using innovation accounting in a structural vector autoregressive model, it is established that monetary authorities in Malawi employ hybrid operating procedures and pursue both...

This paper uses Indian quarterly data for the period of 1960:Q2-2011:Q2 to test for nonlinearity in a standard monetary vector autoregression (VAR) model comprising of output, price and money, using an estimation strategy that is consistent with wide range of structural models. We find that...

Empirical evidence on the whether the inflation-targeting South African Reserve Bank (SARB) should also consider responding to exchange rate fluctuations, are contradictory. Against this backdrop of contradictory evidence, we revisit the issue by questioning if the inflation rate is more...

This paper investigates the existence of spillovers from the housing sector onto consumption and the interest rate for South Africa using a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. In this regard, we estimate a three-variable TVP-VAR model comprising of real...