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than in the latter. As an aside, we also show that, persistence of inflation volatility however, is higher during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095454
This paper first tests if housing prices in the five segments of the South African housing market, namely, large-middle, medium-middle, small-middle, luxury and affordable, exhibits non-linearity based on smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models estimated using quarterly data covering the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008486900
This paper uses a predictive regression framework to examine the out-of-sample predictability of South Africa’s equity premium, using a host of financial and macroeconomic variables. Past studies tend to suggest that the predictors on their own fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010603881
This paper analyses the statistical properties of five major precious metal prices (gold, silver, rhodium, palladium and platinum) based the fractional integration modelling framework while identifying structural breaks. We use monthly data from 1972:1 to 2013:12. Our results indicate orders of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011106154
This paper investigates the possible existence of Granger-causal relationships in the behavior of sovereign bond markets within the European Monetary Union (EMU), with special focus on higher order causality accounting for nonlinear dependence between the variables. With the above in mind both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201328
This paper estimates the Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and uses the model to account for the short-run monetary policy response to increased aid inflows in Malawi. The estimates reveal that the monetary authorities reacted to increased foreign aid inflows the same...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095464
This paper compares the forecasting ability of five alternative types of models in predicting four key macroeconomic variables, namely, per capita growth rate, the CPI inflation, the money market rate, and the growth rate of the nominal effective exchange rate for the South African economy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025618
This paper uses two-types of large-scale models, namely the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) Models based on alternative hyperparameters specifying the prior, which accommodates 267 macroeconomic time series, to forecast key macroeconomic variables of a small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773174
This paper uses Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs), estimated under both classical and Bayesian assumptions, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773178
This paper uses the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting regional house price inflation. As a case study, we use data on house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa. The DFM used in this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773199