We develop an empirical nonlinear model of equilibrium unemployment and test its policy implications for a number of OECD countries. The model here sees the natural rate and the associated equilibrium path of unemployment as endogenous, pushed by the interaction of shocks and the institutional...

This paper develops a general equilibrium endogenous growth model in an overlapping generations framework, and compares, in terms of economic growth, a passive unemployment policy (unemployment insurance) with an active unemployment policy (government expenditures targeted towards improving the...

Empirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a FAVAR model estimated with 116 variables spanning the quarterly period of 1976:01...

This paper employs classical bivariate, factor augmented (FA), slab and spike variable selection (SSVS)-based, and Bayesian semiparametric shrinkage (BSS)-based predictive regression models to forecast the US real private residential fixed investment series over an out of sample period of 1983Q1...

The study evaluates the forecasting ability of models of South Africa’s real fixed business nonresidential investment spending growth over the recent 2003:1–2011:4 out-of-sample period. The forecasting models are based on the Accelerator, Neoclassical, Cash-Flow, Average Q, Stock Price and...

Using several variants of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM), see Zellner and Israilevich (2005) and Ngoie and Zellner (2012), this paper investigates how various tax rate reductions may help stimulate the U.S. economy while not adversely affecting aggregate U.S. debt. Variants of our MMM...

This paper analyzes the production process of scientific outputs and its implications on the U.S. economy using variants of a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM). Federal spending on scientific activities produces innovation which we measure using the number of patents awarded....

Using a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM-DA), this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of 'free market reforms' may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Accounting for possible side effects mainly on the budget deficit, our findings suggest that the...

The paper uses Gibbs sampling technique to estimate a heteroscedastic Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) of the South African economy for the period 1970:1-2000:4, and then forecast GDP, consumption, investment, short and long term interest rates, and the CPI over the period of...

This paper develops a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) Model for forecasting the growth rate of output, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate (91-days Treasury Bills rate) for the South African economy. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood...