Showing 1 - 10 of 12
It is widely believed that regional labour markets in the USA are highly flexible, so that employment shocks have only transitory effects on joblessness since induced migration quickly offsets much of the initial impact. However time-series analysis of the response to shocks is very sensitive to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604964
This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605164
We demonstrate major flaws in the statistical analysis of Beenstock, Reingewertz and Paldor (2012), discrediting their initial claims as to the different degrees integrability of CO2 and temperature.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010612979
Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break.  To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008852584
Given the increasing use of panel data in testing hypotheses about labour market behaviour, it is essential that economists have a cound grasp of the problems involved in the collection of this type of data. This paper investigates the biases generated by recall errors and panel attrition, using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005776254
When breaks occur, equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) based on cointegration face forecasting problems.  We investigate approaches to alleviate forecast failure following a location shift, including updating, intercept corrections, differencing, and estimating the future impact of an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005090636
We analyse intertemporal poverty in two important dimensions - income and nutrition - in less developed northwest China during 2000-2004.  A generalised recursive selection model is proposed which enables simultaneous estimation of the causes of intertemporal poverty within and between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011164426
Interpersonal relationships have long been suspected of shaping agrarian institutions, probably because weak formal institutions must be supplemented by interpersonal trust. This is particularly true for informal risk sharing, a fundamental risk coping mechanism for the rural poor (e.g. Mark R....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604818
This paper gives a selected review of some of the work on poverty mobility, largely based on recent research. The literature is vast and many interesting suggestive findings have emerged. Most evidence points to the importance of household endowments, in terms of education or assets, as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605221
This paper studies the effects of orphanhood on health and education outcomes of children in Tanzania. Using an original dataset on members of the extended family networks of orphaned children, I assess by how much the effects of orphanhood are reduced due to a systematic placement of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005090620