This paper undertakes a comparison exercise to disentangle what drives the opposite findings regarding the effect of house prices on consumption documented in two papers using the same data set for the UK.  On the one hand, Campbell and Cocco (2007) find that old owners are the most benefited...

We construct a simple probit model of the determinants of real house price slump endings.  We find that the probability of a house price slump ending is higher, the smaller was the pre-slump house price run-up; the greater has been the cumualtive house price decline; the lower are real mortgage...

Financial liberalisation and innovation (FLIB) in Australia over the 1980s and 1990s provided the institutional backdrop for one of the most rapid increases in household balance sheets and house prices in the world.  An equilibrium correction model of quarterly Australian house prices for...

Economic conditions exert a strong influence on regional migration. On the one hand, strong labour market conditions, as exemplified by low unemployment rates and high earnings, draw migrants into regions. On the other hand, strong housing market conditions can prevent movement since expensive...

We develop a new automatically-computable test for super exogeneity, using a variant of general-to-specific modeling.  Based on the recent developments of impulse saturation applied to marginal models under the null that no impulses matter, we select the significant impulses for testing in the...

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions.  We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...

We develop forecast-error taxonomies when there are unmodeled variables, forecast 'off-line'.  We establish three surprising results.  Even when an open system is correctly specified in-sample with zero intercepts, despite known future values of strongly exogenous variables, changes in...

Although a general unrestricted model may under-specify the data generation process, especially when breaks occur, model selection can still improve over estimating a prior specification.  Impulse-indicator saturation (IIS) can 'correct' non-constant intercepts induced by location shifts in...