Empirical models of inflation often incorporate equilibrium correction effects based upon levels of prices and input costs. Such models assume that the steady-state price-cost markup is constant, but recent research suggests that this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has...

We analyse a cointegrated VAR comprising UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The nominal variables, treated as I(2) here, form a linearly homogeneous relation, suggesting a transformation of the system to one comprising inflation and relative...

By generalizing Hamiltons model of the US business cycle to a three-regime Markov-switching vector autoregressive model, this paper analyzes regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth in the US, Japan and Europe over the last four decades. Empirical evidence is established for...

Empirical analyses of Cagan`s money demand schedule have broadly speaking suffered from the following problems: (i) Inability to model the data to the end of the hyperinflation. (ii) Difficulties in making congruent models for systems of variables. (iii) Discrepancies between estimated and...

It is a widely encountered misconception that the vector of spreads between longer-term interest rates and the short rate is stationary under the Expectations Theory (ET). By considering a complete term structure of maturities it is shown that the ET determines the conditional mean of the VAR...

Despite the emerging consensus on the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) between trading countries in the long run, empirical evidence in favour of the PPP theory is scarce in data predominantly exposed to real shocks. This paper tests for PPP between Norway and its trading partners using...

This paper proposes a new framework for the impulse-response analysis of business cycle transitions. A cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model is found to be a congruent representation of post-war US employment and output data. In this model some parameters change according to...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. Our aim is to propose a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of post-war UK labour market. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model where...

I address the issue of the `number` of International Monetary Equilibria that the international finance model of Geanokoplos and Tsomocos (2002) possesses. The mainstream competitive model has locally unique equilibria with respect to the real side of the economy; however, it manifests nominal...

In an economy with a fixed exchange rate regime that suffers a random adverse shock, we study the strategies of imperfectly and sequentially informed speculators that may trigger an endogenous devaluation before it occurs exogenously. The game played by the speculators has a unique symmetric...