Many variables have been proposed by past studies as significant determinants of corruption. This paper asks if their estimated impact on corruption is robust to alteration of the information set. A Global Sensitivity Analysis, based on the Leamer`s Extreme-Bounds Analysis give a clear answer:...

We defend the forecasting performance of the FOMC from the recent criticism of Christina and David Romer.  Our argument is that the FOMC forecasts a worst-case scenario that it uses to design decisions that will work well enough (are robust) despite possible misspecification of its model. ...

We investigate what it means for one act to be more ambiguous than another. The question is evidently analogous to asking what makes one prospect riskier than another, but beliefs are neither objective nor representable by a unique probability. Our starting point is an abstract class of...

We examine a variety of preference-based definitions of ambiguous events in the context of the smooth ambiguity model.  We first consider the definition proposed in Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005) based on the classic Ellsberg two-urn paradox (Ellsberg (1961)), and show that it...

Criminals who wear gang colors are acting in a surprisingly brazen way which must increase the probability of being caught and punished by the police.  In our model this brazen behavior is a solution to an enforcement problem.  The central idea is that less able criminals see lower gains from...

Are foundations of models of ambiguity-sensitive preferences too flawed to be usefully applied to economic models?  Al-Najjar and Weinstein (2009) say such is indeed the case.  In this paper, first, we point out that many of the key arguments by Al-Najjar and Weinstein do not apply to quite a...

We propose and axiomatize a model of preferences over acts such that the decision maker evaluates acts according to the expectation (over a set of probability measures) of an increasing transformation of an act`s expected utility. This expectation is calculated using a subjective probability...

We propose a framework for analyzing transformations of demand. Such transformations frequently stem from changes in the dispersion of consumers` valuations, which lead to rotations of the demand curve. In a wide variety of settings, profits are a U-shaped function of dispersion. A high level of...