bank failure during the 2007-10 crisis, and to search for evidence of manipulated Basel risk-weights.  Compared with the … unweighted leverage ratio, we find the risk-weighted asset ratio to be a superior predictor of bank failure when banks operate … under the Basel II regime, provided that the risk of a crisis is low.  When the risk of a crisis is high, the unweighted …

has both superior in- and out-of-sample properties. We show that the superior performance applies to a wide range of … quantities of interest, including volatilities, covolatilities, betas and scenario-based risk measures, where the model …'s performance is particularly strong at short forecast horizons.   …

bankruptcy prospects generating a pro-cyclical risk premium.  A relaxation of borrowing conditions turns credit …

Banks create excessive systemic risk through leverage and maturity mismatch, as financial constraints introduce welfare … required.  Optimally, macroprudential policy reacts to changes in systematic risk and credit conditions over the business cycle …, while microprudential policy reacts to both systematic and idiosyncratic risk. …

This study outlines a new theory linking industrial structure to optimal employment contracts and value reducing risk … firms must use some variable remuneration.  Such remuneration introduces a myopic risk taking problem: an executive would … wish to inflate early expected earnings at some risk to future profits.  To manage this some bonus pay is deferred …

Shipping goods internationally is risky and takes time.  To allocate risk and to finance the time gap between …