This paper asks how well a general equilibrium agency cost model describes the dynamic relationship between credit variables and the business cycle. A Bayesian VAR is used to obtain probability intervals for empirical correlations. The agency cost model is found to predict the leading,...

Suppose we wish to carry out likelihood based inference but we solely have an unbiased simulation based estimator of the likelihood.  We note that unbiasedness is enough when the estimated likelihood is used inside a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.  This result has recently been introduced in...

We enrich a baseline RBC model with search and matching frictions on the labor market and real frictions that are helpful in accounting for the response of macroeconomic aggregates to shocks.  The analysis allows shocks to have an unanticipated and a new (i.e. anticipated) component.  The...

There is widespread disagreement about the role of housing wealth in explaining consumption.  This paper exploits liquid and illiquid wealth time series from household balance sheet data for South Africa, previously constructed by the authors, to explain fluctuations in the ratios of...

This paper uses a VAR model estimated with Bayesian methods to identify the effect of productivity news shocks on labor market variables by imposing that they are orthogonal to current technology but they explain future observed technology.  In the aftermath of a positive news shock,...

The ability of Markov-switching (MS) autoregressive models to replicate selected classical business-cycle features found in US post-war consumption, investment and output is compared to that of linear models. Univariate MS models appear to offer more dynamically parsimonious representations, but...

The ability of Markov-switching (MS) autoregressive models to replicate selected classical business-cycle features found in US post-war consumption, investment and output is compared to that of linear models. Univariate MS models appear to offer more dynamically parsimonious representations, but...

Likelihood based estimation of the parameters of state space models can be carried out via a particle filter.  In this paper we show how to make valid inference on such parameters when the model is incorrect.  In particular we develop a simulation strategy for computing sandwich covariance...

Cobb Douglas production function parameters are not identified from cross-section variation when inputs are perfectly flexible and chosen optimally, and input prices are common to all firms. We consider the role of adjustment costs for inputs in identifying these parameters in this context. The...

Three dimensions of the performance of firms in Ghana’s manufacturing sector are investigated in this paper: their technology and the importance of technical and allocative efficiency. We show that the diversity of factor choices is not due to a non-homothetic technology....