Showing 1 - 10 of 57
China has had a remarkably high ratio of investment to output throughout the period of economic reform, surpassing almost all other economies, whether developed or developing.  The high investment rate is in turn an important proximate determinant of China's high rate of economic growth.  This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004982010
We identify anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric CO2 measured at Mauna Loa using a statistical automatic model selection algorithm (Autometrics).  We find that vegetation, temperature and other natural factors alone cannot explain the trend or the variation in CO2 growth.  Industrial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009393199
This paper shows that the behaviour of inventories is not symmetrical and that their modelling requires more than just a linear regression. Models of inventory behaviour are described and symmetric and non-symmetric-error-correction models are formulated which divide the changes in production...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005047881
Here we assume that the logarithmic asset price is given by a semimartingale. Jacod (2006) has derived an infeasible central limit theorem for the realised variance in such a general framework. However, here we focus on constructing a feasible limit theorem. We propose a new estimator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010661363
It is widely believed that regional labour markets in the USA are highly flexible, so that employment shocks have only transitory effects on joblessness since induced migration quickly offsets much of the initial impact. However time-series analysis of the response to shocks is very sensitive to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604964
This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605164
We demonstrate major flaws in the statistical analysis of Beenstock, Reingewertz and Paldor (2012), discrediting their initial claims as to the different degrees integrability of CO2 and temperature.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010612979
Given the increasing use of panel data in testing hypotheses about labour market behaviour, it is essential that economists have a cound grasp of the problems involved in the collection of this type of data. This paper investigates the biases generated by recall errors and panel attrition, using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005776254
When breaks occur, equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) based on cointegration face forecasting problems.  We … cointegration when an EqCM suffers an equilibrium-mean shift, we show that updating can help when collinearities are changed by an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005090636
Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break.  To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008852584