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Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa

Aron, Janine; Muellbauer, John - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2011

There is widespread disagreement about the role of housing wealth in explaining consumption. This paper exploits liquid and illiquid wealth time series from household balance sheet data for South Africa, previously constructed by the authors, to explain fluctuations in the ratios of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364585

Learning by Disinflating

Ellison, Martin; Ellison, Martin; Barnett, Alina - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2011

satisfy a new central bank mandate specifying greater emphasis on inflation stabilisation. In this case, our results show … that inflation may fall dramatically before it gradually rises to its new long run level. The potential for inflation to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364587

Limited Asset Markets Participation, Monetary Policy and (Inverted) Keynesian Logic

Bilbie, Florin O. - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2005

during the `Great Inflation` period. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010820337

The Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy with Inflation Persistence

Mash, Richard - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2000

In a monetary policy model incorporating partial persistence in inflation it is shown that inflation bias is reduced … and the optimal rule, finding important differences from the results of earlier literature that excludes inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010820341

Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy

Ellison, Martin - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2013

stabilise both output and inflation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004254

Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa

Aron, Janine - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2009

Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many … current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences …. The world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004415

Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: A Dynamic Structural Factor Model Approach

Houssa, Romain - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2004

We analyse the costs of a monetary union in West Africa by means of asymmetric aggegate demand and aggregate supply shocks. Previous studies have estimated the shocks with the VAR model. We discuss the limits of this approach and apply a new technique based on the dynamic factor model. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604873

Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies During Speculative Attacks? New Evidence

Goderis, Benedikt; Ioannidou, Vasso P. - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2006

The appropriate stance of monetary policy during speculative attacks has been the source of much controversy. According to the `traditional view`, a tighter monetary policy is necessary to discourage the outflow of capital, and thus prevent the exchange rate from depreciating. The `revisionist...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605153

Could Reputation-Bias be a Bigger Problem than Inflation-Bias?

Forder, James - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2000

The theory of policy credibility has been influential in both the design of monetary policymaking institutions and in the implementation of policy. In particular, the idea that `reputation` is important has been widely accepted. However, careful attention to its assumptions and implications of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605242

Optimising Microfoundations for Inflation Persistence

Mash, Richard - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2004

based on optimising microfoundations and consistent with the data, especially observed persistence in inflation and output … discretionary policy maker. The model predicts inflation and output persistence comparable to that observed without reliance on rule …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004977859