Showing 1 - 10 of 25
The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011152495
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper we propose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010820294
Disputes about econometric methodology partly reflect a lack of evidence on alternative approaches. We reconsider econometric model selection from a computer-automation perspective, focusing on general-to-specific reductions, embodied in PcGets. Starting from a general congruent model, standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605180
Unrestricted reduced form vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics since Sims (1980) critique of traditional macroeconometric modeling. They are however subjected to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper we propose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277850
Models of macroeconomic learning are populated by agents who possess a great deal of knowledge of the "true" structure … of the economy, and yet ignore the impact of their own learning on that structure; they may learn about an equilibrium …, but they do not learn within it.  An alternative learning model is presented where agents' decisions are informed by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421152
are in the dark about others' actions and the payoff structure.  This paper analyzes learning behavior in such 'black box … we study voluntary contributions games.  We identify two robust features of the players' learning dynamics: search …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011158994
We conduct a field experiment to investigate employers' trust in workers.  A sample of real entrepreneurs and workers from urban Ghana are respectively assigned to the roles of employers and employees.  Employers have the option to hire (trust) an employee, who can in turn choose whether to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011159006
the existing literature, which typically focuses on the learning of private agents during a disinflation.  We build a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364587
Saddlepath learning occurs when agents learn adaptively using a perceived law of motion that has the same form as the … saddlepath relationship in rational expectations equilibrium.  Under saddlepath learning, we obtain a completely general … information.  When the system is determinate, we show that a learning process based on the saddlepath is always e-stable.  When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008673298
In this paper we address the question as to why fund managers may trade on short-term information in a financial market that offers more profitable trading on long-term information. We consider a setting in which a fund manager`s ability is unknown and an investor uses performance observations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010661382