The exchange between Epstein (2010) and Klibanoff et al. (2012) identified a behavioral issue that sharply distinguishes between two classes of models of ambiguity sensitivity, exemplified by the Î±-MEU model and the smooth ambiguity model, respectively. The issue in question is whether a...

Consider a finite data set where each observation consists of a bunde of contingent consumption chosen by an agent from a constraint set of such bundles.  We develop a general procedure for testing the consistency of this data set with a broad class of models of choice under risk and under...

This paper studies how capital-scarce countries should manage volatile resource income.  Existing literature recommends that capital-scarce countries invest domestically, but that volatile resource income should be saved in a foreign sovereign wealth fund.  I reconcile these by combining a...

The global response to a catastrophic shock to productivity which becomes more imminent with global warming is to have carbon taxes to curb the risk of a calamity and to accumulate precautionary capital to facilitate smoothing of consumption.  Our multi-region model of growth and climate change...

This paper characterises the dynamic behaviour of a growing economy where individuals `keep up with the Joneses` and face uninsurable labour income risk. Idiosyncratic uncertainty about future labour income reduces the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth and raises the...

A classroom model of global warming, fossil fuel depletion and the optimal carbon tax is formulated and calibrated. It features iso-elastic fossil fuel demand, stock-dependent fossil fuel extraction costs, an exogenous interest rate and no decay of the atmospheric stock of carbon. The optimal...

We axiomatize preferences that can be represented by a monotonic aggregation of subjective expected utilities generated by a utility function and some set of i.i.d. probability measures over a product state space, S1. For such preferences, we define relevant measures, show that they are treated...

I discuss models which allow the local level model, which rationalised exponentially weighted moving averages, to have a time-varying signal/noise ratio.  I call this a martingale component model.  This makes the rate of discounting of data local.  I show how to handle such models...

Optimal climate policy should act in a precautionary fashion to deal with tipping points that occur at some future random moment. The optimal carbon tax should include an additional component on top of the conventional present discounted value of marginal global warming damages. This component...

Estimating the covariance and correlation between assets using high frequency data is challenging due to market microstructure effects and Epps effects.  In this paper we extend Xiu's univariate QML approach to the multivariate case, carrying out inference as if the observations arise from an...