Showing 1 - 10 of 101
Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modeling consumer price inflation.  Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates), are modeled separately and forecast,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004341
Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking.  Many current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences.  The world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004415
Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, but this fact is ignored in most work on consumer price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates, or CPIX) for South Africa are modeled separately...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605285
This paper proposes a "Flexible Disequilibrium Model" (FDM) which allows for a flexible specification of technology and of firm-level heterogeneity in technical and allocative efficiency levels. FDM is implemented on a G-5 banking dataset covering the period 1989-1996. Significant scale...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005047831
High frequency financial data allows us to learn more about volatility, volatility of volatility and jumps.  One of the key techniques developed in the literature in recent years has been bipower variation and its multipower extension, which estimates time-varying volatility robustly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650770
Suppose we wish to carry out likelihood based inference but we solely have an unbiased simulation based estimator of the likelihood.  We note that unbiasedness is enough when the estimated likelihood is used inside a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.  This result has recently been introduced in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005047860
We build a 4-equation model of the inflation process in South Africa (which has recently adopted inflation targeting), including the exchange rate, consumer prices, producer price, and import prices. This provides useful information on the speed and extent of exchange rate pass-through, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010820301
In many countries, house prices are subject to boom/bust cycles and in some these are linked to severe economic and financial instability.  Overheating can have both a price and a quantity dimension, but it is likely that they are linked by common drivers.  However, much depends on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004234
We consider the reasons for nowcasting, how nowcasts can be achieved, and the use and timing of information.  The existence of contemporaneous data such as surveys is a major difference from forecasting, but many of the recent lessons about forecasting remain relevant.  Given the extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004422
A new test for non-linearity is developed using weighted combinations of regressor powers based on the eigenvectors of the variance-covariance matrix. The test extends the ingenious test for heteroskedasticity proposed by White (1980), but both circumvents problems of high dimensionality and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005047721