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Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'

Hendry, David; Doornik, Jurgen A. - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2014

Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems like an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases, and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095615

General-to-Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes

Krolzig, Hans-Martin - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2000

Unrestricted reduced form vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics since Sims (1980) critique of traditional macroeconometric modeling. They are however subjected to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper we propose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277850

Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures

Hendry, David; Krolzig, Hans-Martin - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2000

Disputes about econometric methodology partly reflect a lack of evidence on alternative approaches. We reconsider econometric model selection from a computer-automation perspective, focusing on general-to-specific reductions, embodied in PcGets. Starting from a general congruent model, standard...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605180

General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions

Krolzig, Hans-Martin - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2003

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper we propose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010820294

Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes

Krolzig, Hans-Martin; Brüggemann, Ralf - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2003

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011152495

Memory and Anticipation: New Empirical Support for an Old Theory of the Utility Function

Knight, John; Gunatilaka, Ramani - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2014

appropriate data set for China. The tests favour the early theories. Implications are drawn. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004132

Is the Dragon Learning to Fly? An Analysis of the Chinese Patent Explosion

Eberhardt, Markus; Helmers, Christian - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2011

China and the United States. We construct a firm-level dataset by matching USPTO and SIPO patents to Chinese manufacturing … China are considerably younger, larger and substantially more export-oriented than firms patenting exclusively in China …. Our study contributes to the debate on China's innovative prowess and its potential to transition from an imitator to an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004142

Education and the Poverty Trap in Rural China

Knight, John; Shi, Li; Quheng, Deng - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2008

generate a poverty trap. The setting is rural China, and the data are from a national household survey for 2002, designed with … research hypotheses in mind. Enrolment is high in rural China by comparison with most poor rural societies, but the quality of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004217

The Curious Case of Son Preference and Household Income in Rural China

Knight, John; Shi, Li; Quheng, Deng - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2008

there is strong son preference in rural China, we postulate two main hypotheses: income-based sex selection making it more …, this is the first study to test these hypotheses in rural China and more generally in developing countries. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004464

Intra-National Protectionism in China: Evidence from the Public Disclosure of 'Illegal' Drug Advertising

Eberhardt, Markus; Wang, Zheng; Yu, Zhihong - Department of Economics, Oxford University - 2013

This paper provides micro-level evidence that drug advertising regulations and inspections in China are used by local … inherent in a partially reformed economy such as China. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004477