Major changes in the Norwegian exchange rate have often coincided with large fluctuations in the price of crude oil. Previous empirical studies have however suggested a weak and ambiguous relation between the oil price and the exchange rate. In contrast to these studies, this paper explores the...

Major changes in the Norwegian exchange rate have often coincided with large fluctuations in the price of crude oil. Previous empirical studies have however suggested a weak and ambiguous relation between the oil price and the exchange rate. In contrast to these studies, this paper explores the...

We study the impact of growth and growth accelerations on poverty and inequality in Indonesia using a new panel dataset covering 26 provinces over the period 1977-2010.  This new dataset allows us to distinguish between mining and non-mining sectors of the economy.  We find that growth in...

Between the 1870s and World War II, falls in world shipping costs and Western industrialisation gave rise to export-led Southeast Asian growth and specialization in a narrow range of primary commodity exports.  A linked development was the emergence of a few dominant Southeast Asian urban...

This working paper analyzes demographic change in Southeast Asia's main cities during and soon after the World War II Japanese occupation.  We argue that two main patterns of population movements are evident.  In food-deficient areas, a search for food security typically led to large net...

In an economy with a fixed exchange rate regime that suffers a random adverse shock, we study the strategies of imperfectly and sequentially informed speculators that may trigger an endogenous devaluation before it occurs exogenously. The game played by the speculators has a unique symmetric...

There is an implicit consensus that 1930s exchange-rate regimes can be characterised as some variant of 'floating'.  This paper applies an adaptation of modern methodologies of exchange-rate regime classification to a panel of 47 countries in weekly observations between January 1919 and August...

We argue that endogenous and anticipated movements in interest rates lead to underestimates of the speed and magnitude of the exchange rate response to monetary policy. Employing the Romer and Romer (2004) exogenous monetary policy shock measure, we find that the effect of a one percentage point...

The existence of a self-regulating arbitrage mechanism under the gold standard has been traditionally considered as one of its main advantages, and attracted a corresponding research interest. This research is arguably relevant not only to test for the efficiency of the gold points, but also to...

We propose that the formation of beliefs be treated as statistical hypothesis tests, and we label such beliefs inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational expectation. Thus, rational expectations is a special...