Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems like an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases, and selecting by inappropriate methods.  We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based...

Internet commerce has made it easier to compare prices and shop online.  However, it has also exposed consumers to a new kind of crime in the form of the electronic theft of payment details.  However the skills required to successfully intercept payment data differ from the skills required to...

This paper shows that the behaviour of inventories is not symmetrical and that their modelling requires more than just a linear regression. Models of inventory behaviour are described and symmetric and non-symmetric-error-correction models are formulated which divide the changes in production...

We identify anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric CO2 measured at Mauna Loa using a statistical automatic model selection algorithm (Autometrics).  We find that vegetation, temperature and other natural factors alone cannot explain the trend or the variation in CO2 growth.  Industrial...

Here we assume that the logarithmic asset price is given by a semimartingale. Jacod (2006) has derived an infeasible central limit theorem for the realised variance in such a general framework. However, here we focus on constructing a feasible limit theorem. We propose a new estimator for the...

When breaks occur, equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) based on cointegration face forecasting problems.  We investigate approaches to alleviate forecast failure following a location shift, including updating, intercept corrections, differencing, and estimating the future impact of an...

Given the increasing use of panel data in testing hypotheses about labour market behaviour, it is essential that economists have a cound grasp of the problems involved in the collection of this type of data. This paper investigates the biases generated by recall errors and panel attrition, using...

We demonstrate major flaws in the statistical analysis of Beenstock, Reingewertz and Paldor (2012), discrediting their initial claims as to the different degrees integrability of CO2 and temperature.

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break.  To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish...

It is widely believed that regional labour markets in the USA are highly flexible, so that employment shocks have only transitory effects on joblessness since induced migration quickly offsets much of the initial impact. However time-series analysis of the response to shocks is very sensitive to...