Economies are so high dimensional and non-constant that many features of models cannot be derived by prior reasoning, intrinsically involving empirical discovery and requiring theory evaluation.  Despite important differences, discovery and evaluation in economics are similar to those of...

Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur.  Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors.  This analysis shows that a valid model can...

How do firms finance large cash flow requirements?  We examine this in the context of firms that are subject to substantial cash flow requirements.  We find that trade credit, inventory and cash stock reductions are all important in the short term for mild requirements.  Larger and longer...

We show that introducing an external capital market with information asymmetry into a product market model reduces opportunistic substitution of sub-standard goods and encourages producers to concentrate on long-run reputation building.  We test this result with a laboratory experiment.  We...

This article reports a unique analysis of private engagements by an activist fund.  It is based on data made available to us by Hermes, the fund manager owned by the British Telecom Pension Scheme (BTPS), on engagements with management in companies targeted by its U.K. Focus Fund (HUKFF).  In...

Alpha is the amount by which the returns from a given asset exceed the returns from the wider market.  The standard way of estimating alpha is to correct for correlation with the market by regressing the asset's returns against the market returns over an extended period of time and then apply...

Traditional methods for analyzing portfolio returns often rely on multifactor risk assessment, and tests of significance are typically based on variants of the t-test.  This approach has serious limitations when analyzing the returns from dynamically traded portfolios that include derivative...

Shipping goods internationally is risky and takes time.  To allocate risk and to finance the time gap between production and sale, a range of payment contracts is utilized.  I study the optimal choice between these payment contracts and their implications for trade.  The equilibrium contract...

This paper studies the consequences of a regulatory pay cap in proportion to assets onbank risk, bank value, and bank asset allocations. The cap is shown to lower banks' riskand raise banks' values by acting against a competitive externality in the labour market.The risk reduction is achieved...

China has sought to improve enterprise performance not through privatisation as in other transition economies, but through corporatisation as means of improving corporate governance. Actual governance practices of corporatised Chinese firms are however seriously defective, characterized by...