This paper is a revision of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute’s Working Papers in Economics Series, No. 803, entitled “How Falling Exchange Rates 2000 – 2007 Have Affected the U.S. Economy and Trade Deficit (Evaluated Using the Federal Reserve’s Real Broad Exchange Rate)”. It expands...

Separate macroeconomic consumption demand functions are developed and tested for (1) durable goods, (2) nondurable goods and (3) services. These are compared for consistency with econometric studies of total consumer demand. Key factors determining demand for these goods are tested using U.S....

Using a simplified Klein/Fair structural model of the U.S. economy, estimated using 1960 – 2000 data, the paper finds that the 12.9% dollar decline 2000-2009 had a positive effect on exports, but mildly negative effects for domestically produced investment and consumer goods. It is shown that...

This paper examines (econometrically) which interest rates seem most systematically related to investment and the GDP and how long the lag time is before changes in these interest rates affect the GDP. We conclude that the Prime interest rate has the most important and systematic influence on...

Rising exchange rates strengthen the dollar and lower prices on imported consumer goods. Lower import prices have two effects. (1) A substitution effect that shifts demand from domestically produced goods to imports. (2) An income effect that increases demand for imports even further. However,...

Keynes held that it was mainly current income that determined the demand for consumer goods and services. He also suggested wealth, interest rates, and taxes may have smaller effects. Later theories by Modigliani and Friedman, based on long term average income as the income variable determining...

In the Keynesian consumption function, current income is asserted to be the main determinant of consumption. This paper examines the extent to which the Keynesian consumption function explains 1960 - 2000 U.S. consumption patterns. The results are compared to the longer term average income...

Regression estimates of exchange rate total effects on aggregate demand are broken into separate income and substitution effects. Total effects estimates can seem contrary to theory. Separating them into their two components shows this is not the case. The separation method also provides a...

Falling exchange rates reduce the purchasing power of the dollar, increasing import prices. Higher import prices have two effects. (1) A substitution effect that shifts demand from imported to domestically produced goods. (2) An income effect that reduces the total amount of real income...

Rising exchange rates can lower prices on imported consumer goods. The lower prices have two effects. A substitution effect shifts in demand from domestically produced goods to imports. An income effect also allows more import purchases. It also allows some income previously spent on imports to...