Many recent modelling advances in finance topics ranging from the pricing of volatility-based derivative products to asset management are predicated on the importance of jumps, or discontinuous movements in asset returns. In light of this, a number of recent papers have addressed volatility...

In this paper, we provide new evidence on the empirical usefulness of various simple seasonal models, and underscore the importance of carefully designing criteria by which one judges alternative models. In particular, we underscore the importance of both choice of forecast or simulation horizon...

If the intensity parameter in a jump diffusion model is identically zero, then parameters characterizing the jump size density cannot be identified. In general, this lack of identification precludes consistent estimation of identified parameters. Hence, it should be standard practice to...

This paper introduces a conditional Kolmogorov test, in the spirit of Andrews (1997), that allows for comparison of multiple misspecifed conditional distribution models, for the case of dependent observations. A conditional confidence interval version of the test is also discussed. Model...

In recent years it has become apparent that many of the classical testing procedures used to select amongst alternative economic theories and economic models are not realistic. In particular, researchers have become more aware of the fact that parameter estimation error and data dependence play...

This paper examines maximum likelihood estimation via hill climbing and the expectations maximization (EM) algorithm in the context of Hamilton's Markov switching framework. The techniques are explained in detail and are followed by a discussion of both analytic and computational issues. Both...

This paper outlines testing procedures for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of multiple conditional distribution models. The tests that are discussed are based on either the comparison of entire conditional distributions or the comparison of predictive confidence...

This Chapter discusses estimation, specification testing, and model selection of predictive density models. In particular, predictive density estimation is briefly discussed. And a variety of different specifications and model evaluation tests due to various authors including Christoffersen and...

This entry for the New Palgrave covers developments in nonlinear time series analysis over the last 25 years.

This chapter builds on previous work by Bhardwaj and Swanson (2004) who address the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the “empty box” category, as discussed in Granger (1999). However, rather than focusing primarily on linear models, as do Bhardwaj and Swanson, we...