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Traditional Welfare Analysis of a Small CountryÂ’s Trade Policy: A Note

Visser, Michael S. - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2003

This paper reexamines the standard welfare analysis of export subsidies under perfect competition, pointing out that the prevailing textbook analysis ignores the incentives of foreign producers to sell at the highest price possible, which may be in the domestic market. This substantially alters...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005464107

Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2010

This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed … Ricardian Equivalence to obtain, agentsâ€™ expectations must not depend on governmentâ€™s financial variables under deficit …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692942

A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model

Branch, Wiliam; Evans, George W. - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2005

We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763171

Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2002

and monetary polices proposed by (Leeper 1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763191

Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2007

We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than … rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive …-up there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning. Our approach could be applied …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051491

Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy

Branch, Wiliam; Carlson, John; Evans, George W.; … - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2006

This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in the policymaker's preferences for price vs. output stability, the learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005196104

Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account

Davies, Ronald B.; Shea, Paul - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2003

previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a random walk. Under …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593741

Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off

Branch, Wiliam; Carlson, John; Evans, George W.; … - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2004

processing rate. Although a decline of policy activism directly increases output volatility, it indirectly anchors expectations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593745

Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning

Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2003

Forward-looking monetary models with Taylor-type interest rate rules are known to generate indeterminacies, with a potential dependence on extraneous "sunspots," for some structural and policy parameters. We investigate the stability of these solutions under adaptive learning, focusing on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593762

Near-Rational Exuberance

Bullard, James; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - Department of Economics, University of Oregon - 2005

requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is locally indeterminate. We suggest ways in which policymakers …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593763