We explore four decades of cyclical and long-run dynamics in income distribution and economic activity for a panel of thirteen OECD countries. Based on predator-prey dynamics, we find that the business cycle is weakly profit-led , and that the long-run equilibrium has been shifting towards a...

We explore four decades of cyclical and long-run dynamics in income distribution and economic activity for a panel of thirteen OECD countries, as measured by the wage share and the output gap. When modeled as a Goodwin model, our results suggest that economic activity is weakly profit-led and...

A standard model of activist macroeconomic policy derives a monetary reaction rule by assuming that governments have performance objectives, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. In addition to monetary policy governments apply a variety of instruments to influence inflation and...

Carlin and Soskice (2005) advocate a 3-equation model of stabilization policy, the IS-PC-MR model. Their third equation is the monetary reaction rule MR derived by assuming that governments have performance objectives, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve PC. Central banks achieve...

Originally presented as an empirical regularity, a variety of microeconomic derivations of the Phillips tradeoff between inflation and real output have been developed. Since these new Phillips curve models are expressed in terms of unobserved variables and expectations, we develop estimates of...

Carlin and Soskice (2005) advocate a 3-equation model of stabilization policy to replace the conventional IS-LM-AS model. One of their new equations is a monetary reaction rule MR derived by assuming that governments have performance objectives, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve...

Carlin and Soskice (2005) advocate a 3-equation model of stabilization policy. One equation is a monetary reaction rule MR derived by assuming that governments have performance objectives, but are constrained by a Phillips curve PC. Central banks attempt to implement these objectives by setting...

In the new Keynesian model of endogenous stabilization governments have objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. Because they react quickly to inflation shocks, governments can lean against the macroeconomic wind. We develop an...

In the new Keynesian model of endogenous stabilization governments have objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. Because they react more quickly to inflation shocks than private agents, governments can lean against the...

In the new Keynesian theory of endogenous stabilization governments react quickly to lean against the macroeconomic wind. In open economies policymaking is complicated by concern about the trade balance. We extend the political business cycle model by assuming that governments have objectives...