This paper demonstrates that “commodity currency” exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting future global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample. A critical element of our in-sample approach is to allow for structural breaks, endemic to empirical exchange rate...

Volatile and rising agricultural prices place significant strain on the global fight against poverty. An accurate reading of future food price movements would thus be an invaluable budgetary planning tool for government agencies and food aid programs aimed at alleviating hunger. Using the...

This paper first confirms and extends findings in the previous literature that for major commodity exporters with market-based exchange rates, the world price of their primary commodity exports is an important and robust determinant for their real exchange rate values. However, despite inducing...