For a VAR with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities, we present posterior densities for several objects that are of interest for designing and evaluating monetary policy. These include measures of inflation persistence, the natural rate of unemployment, a core rate of inflation, and...

This paper uses a nonlinear stochastic model to describe inflation-unemployment dynamics in the U.S. after World War II. The model is a vector autoregression with coefficients that are random walks with innovations that are arbitrarily correlated with each other and with innovations to the...

This paper uses consumption data to estimate the trend growth rate for the “new economy.'' The analysis starts with the assumption that a trend break in GDP should be accompanied by a trend break in consumption. But because consumption is forward looking and smoother than GDP, it should be...