Conventional structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models with Gaussian errors are not identified, and additional identifying restrictions are typically imposed in applied work. We show that the Gaussian case is an exception in that a SVAR model whose error vector consists of independent...

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks...

In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a well-defined class of flexible models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A major aim of our study is to find out whether they, due to their flexibility, are as useful tools in economic forecasting as...