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Giacomini, Raffaella; Gottschling, Andreas; Haefke, … - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2002

We propose a new family of density functions that possess both flexibility and closed form expressions for moments and anti-derivatives, making them particularly appealing for applications. We illustrate its usefulness by applying our new family to obtain density forecasts of U.S. inflation. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772145

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

Arana, Estanislao; Delicado, Pedro; Martí, Luis - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 1999

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of two predictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772346

Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies

Karelaia, Natalia; Hogarth, Robin - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2007

cues and redundancy). An analysis of learning studies reveals that the most effective form of feedback is information about …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827439

First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

Hansen, Stephen Eliot; McMahon, Michael - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2011

with experience. We then reject increasing confidence in private information or learning about the structure of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323415

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

Matthes, Christian; Rondina, Francesca - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2012

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New … these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics … demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896610

Stochastic evolution of rules for playing normal form games

Germano, Fabrizio - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2004

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments of stochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal form games that arise. It is shown that many of the folk results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772034

Deciding analytically or trusting your intuition? The advantadges and disadvantadges of analytic and intuitive thought

Hogarth, Robin - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2002

used by both systems as well as the characteristics of environments that facilitate or hinder accurate learning by the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772107

The evolution of conventions under incomplete information

Jacobsen, Hans Jorgen; Jensen, Mogens; Sloth, Birgitte - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 1997

We formulate an evolutionary learning process in the spirit of Young (1993a) for games of incomplete information. The … double auction. For both games selection by evolutionary learning is in favor of Bayesian equilibria where some types of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772120

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Hogarth, Robin - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2003

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerial behavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the one hand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback on decisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issues in the context...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772371

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Grosskopf, Brit; Nagel, Rosemarie - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2007

different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772514