We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). We estimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treating the unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of...

In principle, a country can not endure negative genuine savings for long periods of time without experiencing declining consumption. Nevertheless, theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter of non-renewable natural resources could experience permanent negative genuine...

The 1994 Northridge earthquake sent ripples to insurance conpanies everywhere. This was one in a series of natural disasters such as Hurricane Andrew which together with the problems in Lloyd's of London have insurance companies running for cover. This paper presents a calibration of the U.S....

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibration exercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of the procedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particular reference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We...

In this paper we explore the accumulation of capital in the presence of limited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, borrowing constraints and endogenous labor supply. As in the exogenous labor supply case (e.g. Aiyagari 1994, Huggett 1997), we find that steady states are characterized with...

We derive a new inequality for uniform deviations of averages from their means. The inequality is a common generalization of previous results of Vapnik and Chervonenkis (1974) and Pollard (1986). Using the new inequality we obtain tight bounds for empirical loss minimization learning.

We consider the application of normal theory methods to the estimation and testing of a general type of multivariate regression models with errors--in--variables, in the case where various data sets are merged into a single analysis and the observable variables deviate possibly from normality....

This paper proposes to estimate the covariance matrix of stock returns by an optimally weighted average of two existing estimators: the sample covariance matrix and single-index covariance matrix. This method is generally known as shrinkage, and it is standard in decision theory and in empirical...

We propose new spanning tests that assess if the initial and additional assets share the economically meaningful cost and mean representing portfolios. We prove their asymptotic equivalence to existing tests under local alternatives. We also show that unlike two-step or iterated procedures,...

This paper demonstrates that all rank test statistics are functions of implicit null space estimators. The paper proposes a novel theory of null space estimation that allows for standard asymptotics, polynomial regressions, and cointegration asymptotics. The paper proves that the behaviour of...