In systems of variables with a specified or already identified cointegrating rank, stationarity of component variates can be tested by a simple restriction test. The implied decision is often in conflict with the outcome of unit root tests on the same variables. Using a framework of Bayes...

This paper investigates by means of Monte Carlo techniques the robustness of the CUSUM and CUSUM-of-squares tests (Brown et al., 1975) to serial correlation, endogeneity and lack of structural invariance. Our findings suggest that these tests perform better in the context of a dynamic model of...

This paper presents results concerning the performance of both single equation and system panel cointegration tests and estimators. The study considers the tests developed in Pedroni (1999, 2004), Westerlund (2005), Larsson, Lyhagen, and Löthgren (2001) and Breitung (2005); and the estimators...

In this paper we present finite T mean and variance correction factors and corresponding response surface regressions for the panel cointegration tests presented in Pedroni (1999, 2004), Westerlund (2005), Larsson et al. (2001), and Breitung (2005). For the single equation tests we consider up...

The empirical joint distribution of return-pairs on stock indices displays high tail-dependence in the lower tail and low tail-dependence in the upper tail. The presence of tail-dependence is not compatible with the assumption of (conditional) joint normality. The presence of asymmetric-tail...

Tests for relative predictive accuracy have become a widespread addendum to forecast comparisons. Many empirical research reports conclude that the difference between the entertained forecasting models is 'insignificant'. This paper collects arguments that cast doubt on the usefulness of...

We extend fixed-b asymptotic theory to the nonparametric Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. We show that the fixed-b limits depend on nuisance parameters in a complicated way. These non-pivotal limits provide an alternative theoretical explanation for the well known finite sample problems of...

This paper develops a fully modified OLS estimator for cointegrating polynomial regressions, i.e. for regressions including deterministic variables, integrated processes and powers of integrated processes as explanatory variables and stationary errors. The errors are allowed to be serially...

We study the benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. For a realistic simulation design, we generate multivariate time-series samples of size 40 to 200 from a macroeconomic DSGE-VAR model....

The method for estimation and testing for cointegration put forward by Johansen assumes that the data are described by a vector autoregressive process. In this article we extend the data generating process to autoregressive moving average models without unit roots in the MA polynomial. We first...