Showing 1 - 10 of 28
This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques, specifically a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a) which allows for unit (or fractional) roots both at the zero (long-run) and at the cyclical frequencies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764147
We provide a systematic comparison of the out-of-sample forecasts based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations for the euro against the US dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010929382
We study the benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. For a realistic simulation design, we generate multivariate time-series samples of size 40 to 200 from a macroeconomic DSGE-VAR model....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010584147
This paper examines the relevance of incorporating seasonality in agricultural supply models. Former studies have eliminated the problem of seasonality by using seasonally adjusted data. Recent developments in cointegration techniques allow the comprehensive modelling of error-correcting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764138
The legal environment, the structure of the financial system as well as the concentration of corporate ownership and the development of the capital market suggest for Austria a high effectiveness of the monetary policy with a strong impact of the lending channel. This supposition was verified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764150
In this paper we design a simple trading strategy to exploit the hypothesized distinct informational content of the arithmetic and geometric mean. The rejection of cointegration between the two stock market indicators supports this conjecture. The profits generated by this cheaply replicable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764180
In this paper we apply cointegration and Granger-causality analyses to construct linear and neural network error-correction models for an Austrian Initial Public Offerings IndeX (IPOXATX). We use the significant relationship between the IPOXATX and the Austrian Stock Market Index ATX to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764181
A two-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process is estimated for quarterly aggregate GDP of the fifteen countries that compose the European Union, and the forecasts from this nonlinear model are compared, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation, with those from a simple autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764194
Many macroeconometric models depict situations where the shares of the major demand aggregates in output are stable over time. The joint dynamic behavior of the considered demand aggregate and output may thus be approximated by a cointegrated vector autoregression. However, the shares of many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764195
The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764254