This lecture is about how best to evaluate economic theories in macroeconomics and finance, and the lessons that can be learned from the past use and misuse of evidence. It is argued that all macro/finance models are ‘false’ so should not be judged solely on the realism of their...

What determines human beings' political preferences? Using nationally representative longitudinal data, we show that having daughters makes people more likely to vote for left-wing political parties. Having sons leads people to favor right-wing parties. The paper checks that our result is not an...

This paper is the first of its kind to estimate the exogenous effect of schooling on reduced blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension. Using the changes of the minimum school-leaving age in the United Kingdom from age 14 to 15 in 1947, and from age 15 to 16 in 1973, as instruments, the...

Little is known about why some human beings make risky life-choices. This paper provides evidence that people's health decisions and addictive actions are influenced by the gender of their children. Having a daughter leads individuals -- in micro data from Great Britain and the United States --...

This paper investigates the determinants of the labour supply of nurses in the UK. Attention focuses on the elasticity of hours of work supplied with respect to wage rates. This is achieved using nine waves of data from the British Household Panel Survey. The panel nature of this survey allows...

This paper considers the simultaneous explanation of mortality risk, health and lifestyles, using a reduced-form system of equations in which the multivariate distribution is defined by the copula. A copula approximation of the joint distribution allows one to avoid usually implicit...

This paper develops and estimates a model that integrates two fundamental theories of individual health behavior: the Becker-Murphy model of rational addiction and the Grossman model of health investment. We define an individual's lifetime smoking consumption pattern and investments in health...

We attempt to answer a simple empirical question: does having children make a parent live longer? The hypothesis we offer is that a parent's immune system is refreshed by a child's infections at a time when their own protection starts wearing thin. With the boosted immune system, the parent has...

This study uses the Vietnam Young Lives Survey to investigate the impact of small-scale weather shocks on child nutritional status as well as the mechanism through which weather shocks affect child nutritional status. The results show that small-scale weather shocks negatively affect child...

This paper shows that aggregation over heterogeneous firms, which are subject to temporary technology shocks, will lead to long memory and nonlinearities. We start from microfoundations, using standard RBC model of monopolistic competition. We then derive the fundamental intertemporal...