The paper evaluates current account dynamics in countries with different exchange rate regimes within the EU. In this, the empirical analysis explicitly differentiates between countries with a flexible and a fixed exchange rate regime and members of a monetary union. In addition, we model the...

This paper extends the work of Kaminsky and Schmukler (2003) to the Baltic and Central Eastern European future Member States of the European Union, to test if the same short-run increase in cyclical volatility arising from financial integration is observed in this specific sample of “emerging...

Before the 1997-98 crisis, the East Asian economies—except for Japan—informally pegged their currencies to the dollar. These soft pegs made them vulnerable to a depreciating yen thereby aggravating the crisis. To limit future misalignments, the IMF wants East Asian currencies to float...

This paper compares alternative estimates of systemic time-varying excess returns for the Irish pound and the Spanish peseta, against the German mark, since 1985. We make use of progressively more complex models, going from the GARCH in Mean specification, to the International Capital Asset...

Until recently, Croatia's economic performance was the envy of many countries in transition: a successful stabilization effort in late 1993 was followed by virtual price stability and real GDP growth of 6 percent a year during 1994–97. Monetary tightening, the weak economy, and a...

Croatia achieved progress in restoring control over the public finances. Executive Directors welcomed the comprehensive economic program, with its focus on the fiscal deficit and tax reductions, wage discipline, and structural reforms in the context of a stable exchange rate. They stressed the...

This paper examines Turkey’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. Economic performance over the last three years has been impressive. For the medium term, the main challenge is to...

The Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria for Serbia and Montenegro are discussed. The agreed tighter fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies should cool off wage and credit growth, which are driving the demand...

Croatia has made important strides in restoring robust economic growth and achieving price stability while continuing to strengthen its net international reserves position under the Stand-By Arrangement. Executive Directors welcomed this development, and stressed the need to improve fiscal...

Croatia continues to enjoy economic growth, price stability, and rising international reserves under the Stand-By Arrangement. Executive Directors commended this and stressed the need for prudent macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, and tight monetary policy. They...