The paper evaluates current account dynamics in countries with different exchange rate regimes within the EU. In this, the empirical analysis explicitly differentiates between countries with a flexible and a fixed exchange rate regime and members of a monetary union. In addition, we model the...

This paper extends the work of Kaminsky and Schmukler (2003) to the Baltic and Central Eastern European future Member States of the European Union, to test if the same short-run increase in cyclical volatility arising from financial integration is observed in this specific sample of “emerging...

Before the 1997-98 crisis, the East Asian economies—except for Japan—informally pegged their currencies to the dollar. These soft pegs made them vulnerable to a depreciating yen thereby aggravating the crisis. To limit future misalignments, the IMF wants East Asian currencies to float...

This paper compares alternative estimates of systemic time-varying excess returns for the Irish pound and the Spanish peseta, against the German mark, since 1985. We make use of progressively more complex models, going from the GARCH in Mean specification, to the International Capital Asset...

This paper examines Turkey’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. Economic performance over the last three years has been impressive. For the medium term, the main challenge is to...

Ukraine’s economic downturn has been sharper than originally envisaged, mostly reflecting the deterioration of the external environment. The staff report examines Ukraine’s first review under the Stand-By Arrangement, requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria,...

The government of Georgia moved forcefully to counter the economic impact of the August 2008 conflict with Russia and global financial crisis. Monetary and prudential policy easing was, however, unable to prevent a sharp credit squeeze. The economy is recovering at a solid pace, with real GDP...

This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic results for Romania were not as strong in 2005 compared with 2004 on account of both internal and external factors. Growth slowed to 4.1 percent in 2005, with agricultural output falling as a result of floods, and industrial output...

The ex-post evaluation of Iceland’s Exceptional Access under the 2008 Stand-By Arrangement is presented. In the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008, Iceland has experienced a deep financial and economic crisis of its own. Domestically, the rapid increase in lending fuelled...

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement for Hungary. All end-March 2009 quantitative performance criteria and the continuous performance criterion on nonaccumulation of external arrears were met, as well as the end-March indicative target on central...