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Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues.

Sturm, Michael; Gurtner, François; Alegre, Juan Gonzalez - European Central Bank - 2009

Fiscal policy choices have a particularly significant impact on economic performance in oil-exporting countries, owing to the importance of the oil sector in the economy and the fact that in most countries oil revenues accrue to the government. At the same time, fiscal policy in oil-centred...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036735

Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area

Buchmann, Marco - European Central Bank - 2009

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458424

Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics

Trigari, Antonella - European Central Bank - 2004

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. Then, it estimates a set of structural parameters...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816190

Introduction to Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks

Fry, Renée; Jones, Callum; Kent, Christopher - Reserve Bank of Australia

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008499704

Wrap-up Discussion

Dooley, Michael; Williams, John C - Reserve Bank of Australia

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008499714

Opting out of the Great Inflation: German monetary policy after the break down of Bretton Woods

Beyer, Andreas; Gaspar, Vítor; Gerberding, Christina; … - European Central Bank - 2009

During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002749

Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance

Reynard, Samuel - European Central Bank - 2007

This paper presents a systematic empirical relationship between money and subsequent prices and output, using US, euro area and Swiss data since the 1960-70s. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530771

The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - European Central Bank - 2003

increased, we find that, as of September 2002, with the exception of Japan there is no evidence of substantial deflation risks …. We also put the estimates of deflation risk for the United States, Germany and Japan into historical perspective. We find … that only for Japan there is evidence of deflation risks that are unusually high by historical standards. JEL …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530801

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

Cristadoro, Riccardo; Venditti, Fabrizio; Saporito, Giuseppe - European Central Bank - 2008

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530864

Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy

Brouwer, Gordon de; Ellis, Luci - Reserve Bank of Australia - 1998

Whether people form their expectations of the future in a model-consistent or extrapolative manner, has implications for the way the economy and monetary policy are modelled. The first half of this paper provides three pieces of information about inflation expectations – that survey measures...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423502