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The Impact of Systemic Risk on the Diversification Benefits of a Risk Portfolio
Busse, Marc; Dacorogna, Michel; Kratz, Marie - HAL - 2013
Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010899196
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A mathematical resurgence of risk management: an extreme modeling of expert opinions
Guegan, Dominique; Hassani, Bertrand - HAL - 2011
The Operational Risk Advanced Measurement Approach requires financial institutions to use scenarios to model these risks and to evaluate the pertaining capital charges. Considering that a banking group is composed of numerous entities (branches and subsidiaries), and that each one of them is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011025772
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Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for Quadratic Portfolio of Securities with Mixture of Elliptic Distribution Risk Factors
KAMDEM, Jules SADEFO - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2004
Generally, in the financial literature, the notion of quadratic VaR is implicitly confused with the Delta-Gamma VaR, because more authors dealt with portfolios that contained derivatives instruments. In this paper, we postpone to estimate both the expected shortfall and Value-at-Risk of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706570
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What Is the Best Risk Measure in Practice? A Comparison of Standard Measures
Emmer, Suzanne; Kratz, Marie; Tasche, Dirk - HAL - 2013
Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticized for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821003
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GARCH Models for Daily Stock Returns: Impact of Estimation Frequency on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasts
Ardia, David; Hoogerheide, Lennart - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013
We analyze the impact of the estimation frequency - updating parameter estimates on a daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly basis - for commonly used GARCH models in a large-scale study, using more than twelve years (2000-2012) of daily returns for constituents of the S&P 500 index. We assess the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257409
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Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply
Rozenberg, Julie; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien - HAL - 2010
Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647577
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Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply
Rozenberg, Julie; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien - HAL - 2010
Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010738735
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On the Risk Comovements between the Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
Truchis, Gilles De; Keddad, Benjamin - HAL - 2014
both fractional cointegration and copula techniques. The former exploits the long memory behavior of the volatility … for the European and British exchange rates. Concerning the copula analysis, we conclude in favor of weak dependence when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933834
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Mixed Density based Copula Likelihood
Azam, Kazim; Lucas, Andre - Tinbergen Instituut - 2015
We consider a new copula method for mixed marginals of discrete and continuous random variables. Unlike the Bayesian … methods in the literature, we use maximum likelihood estimation based on closed-form copula functions. We show with a … using data from the 2013 Household Finance Survey, we show how the copula dependence between income (continuous) and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255720
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The pricing of correlated default risk: evidence from the credit derivatives market
Zhu, Haibin; Tarashev, Nikola A. - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2008
In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082786