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Convergence and Growth: Portugal in the EU 1986-2010

Simões, Marta; Andrade, João Sousa; Duarte, Adelaide - Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF), … - 2012

The Portuguese convergence and growth experience after EU membership can be divided into two periods: 1986-1998, a … convergence period during which growth in the Portuguese economy accelerated and Portugal grew faster than the EU15/14 average … nominal convergence on the way to the euro in 1990s), structural reforms, in the financial, labour and product markets …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010583561

Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR

Tenhofen, Jörn; Wolff, Guntram B. - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2007

How does private consumption react to an exogenous increase in government expenditure? Standard structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) usually report a positive GDP as well as consumption response, while event studies report a negative consumption response. We investigate in a SVAR whether...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083242

The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis

Wolff, Guntram B.; Tenhofen, Jörn; Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2006

We investigate the short-term effects of fiscal policy shocks on the German economy following the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). We find that direct government expenditure shocks increase output and private consumption on impact with low statistical significance, while they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083253

How effective are automatic stabilisers? Theory and empirical results for Germany and other OECD countries

Tödter, Karl-Heinz; Scharnagl, Michael - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2004

Cyclically induced changes in taxes and government expenditures which tend to stabilise aggregate output are called automatic stabilisers. Using a small macro model, this paper reviews alternative methods of measuring the smoothing power of automatic stabilisers and discusses their relationship...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083297

Toward a Taylor rule for fiscal policy

Kliem, Martin; Kriwoluzky, Alexander - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2010

This paper presents a procedure to determine policy feedback rules in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We illustrate our approach with fiscal feedback rules for tax instruments in a standard medium-scale DSGE model. First, we approximate the optimal dynamic behavior of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643166

Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?

Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca - Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF), … - 2010

Credible fiscal plans that aim at restoring fiscal sustainability will be essential to counter the present increase in debt levels all across Europe. The macroeconomic scenario of such plans will be crucial. This paper assesses whether there is any advantage in delegating (part of) such power to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008595655

The debt brake: business cycle and welfare consequences of Germany's new fiscal policy rule

Mayer, Eric; Stähler, Nikolai - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2009

In a New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian consumers, we show that automatic stabilization according to a countercyclical spending rule following the idea of the debt brake is well suited both to steer the economy and in terms of welfare. In particular, the adjustment account set up to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005059028

Output Smoothing in EMU and OECD: Can We Forego Government Contribution? A risk sharing approach

Marinheiro, Carlos - Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF), … - 2003

This paper analyses the smoothing of asymmetric shocks to output for a sample of OECD countries. The research finds no evidence of large differences in the patterns of risk sharing for the 19 OECD countries, the EU-15 or euro-area countries, for the period 1970-1999. However, there were shown to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005696488

Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt

Marinheiro, Carlos - Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF), … - 2006

Egypt has presented important budget imbalances. This paper tries to evaluate whether Egypt’s public deficit has had any impact on current account imbalances, examining the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis for Egypt. We conclude for the presence of a (weak) long-run relationship between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005696494

The Stability and Growth Pact, Fiscal Policy Institutions, and Stabilization in Europe

Marinheiro, Carlos - Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF), … - 2007

Ever since its inception EMU has been subject to controversy. The fiscal policy rules embedded in the Treaty on European Union, and clarified in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), are probably the most contentious. The SGP as always being accused of being too rigid and of forcing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005696498