Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework...

Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework...

Dans cet article, nous proposons une démarche originale visant à évaluer la capacité des tests usuels de backtesting à discriminer différentes prévisions de Value at Risk (VaR) ne fournissant pas la même évaluation ex-ante du risque. Nos résultats montrent que, pour un même actif, ces...

This paper proposes a new duration-based backtesting procedure for VaR forecasts. The GMM test framework proposed by Bontemps (2006) to test for the distributional assumption (i.e. the geometric distribution) is applied to the case of the VaR forecasts validity. Using simple J-statistic based on...

This paper proposes a new test of Value at Risk (VaR) validation. Our test exploits the idea that the sequence of VaR violations (Hit function) - taking value 1-α, if there is a violation, and -α otherwise - for a nominal coverage rate α verifies the properties of a martingale difference if...