Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär - Nationalekonomiska Institutionen, Uppsala Universitet - 2007
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...