This paper presents a small model of the Australian macroeconomy. The model is empirically based, aggregate in nature and consists of five estimated equations – for non-farm output, the real exchange rate, import prices, unit labour costs and consumer prices. The stylised facts underlying each...

Almost a decade ago David Gruen and Geoff Shuetrim constructed a small macroeconomic model of the Australian economy. A comprehensive description of this model was subsequently provided by Beechey <em>et al</em> (2000). Since that time, however, the model has continued to evolve. This paper provides an...

Ball and Sheridan (forthcoming) show that OECD countries with a history of high inflation before the 1990s have subsequently experienced a larger degree of disinflation than countries with a history of low inflation. They label this process ‘regression to the mean’, and argue that it...

In this paper we discuss the development of Phillips curves in Australia over the forty years since Phillips first estimated one using Australian data. We examine the central issues faced by researchers estimating Australian Phillips curves. These include the distinction between the short and...

SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) took the opportunity of the first anniversary of this new institution to organise a joint conference in Berlin on 8-9 November 2011. The purpose of this event was...

Historical experience shows that disruptions in credit markets can have a material impact on activity and inflation. However, it is hard to measure such effects owing to the difficulty in isolating credit supply shocks. This paper employs survey data to identify the impact of credit supply...

We assess the transmission of monetary policy shocks on oil prices using a VAR model. We identify monetary policy and financial activity shocks disentangled from demand and oil supply shocks using sign restrictions. We obtain the following main findings. (i) Monetary policy and financial...

Evidence on the interdependency between monetary policy and the state of the banking system is scarce. We suggest an integrated micro-macro approach with two core virtues. First, we measure the probability of bank distress directly at the bank level. Second, we integrate a microeconomic hazard...