Assessments of investors' risk appetite/aversion stance via indicators often yields results which seem unsatisfactory (see e.g. Illing and Aaron (2005)). Understanding how such indicators work therefore seems essential for further improvements. The present paper seeks to contribute to this...

This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The single factor is the short-term interest rate, which is modeled as a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process. Our specification allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. The process is...

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...

This paper uses the method developed by Bollerslev and Todorov (2011b) to estimate risk premia for extreme events for the US and the German stock markets. The method extracts jump tail measures from high-frequency futures price data and from options data. In a second step, jump tail...

Since Mandelbrot's seminal work (1963), alpha-stable distributions with infinite variance have been regarded as a more realistic distributional assumption than the normal distribution for some economic variables, especially financial data. After providing a brief survey of theoretical results on...

“Arbitrage CDOs” have recorded an explosive growth during the years before the outbreak of the financial crisis. In the present paper we discuss potential sources of such arbitrage opportunities, in particular arbitrage gains due to mispricing. For this purpose we examine the risk profiles...

The paper studies the short-term effects of energy price hikes on the supply of industrial goods and transport services including the repercussions on remuneration of input factors. While industry had suffered more strongly from the oil price shock of the late 1970s compared with the one of the...

This paper considers estimation methods and inference for linear dynamic panel data models with unit-specific heterogeneity and a short time dimension. In particular, we focus on the identification of the coefficients of time-invariant variables in a dynamic version of the Hausman and Taylor...

This paper introduces a stress test of the corporate credit portfolios of 24 large German banks by a two-stage approach: First, a macro-econometric model is used to forecast the impact of a substantial increase of the user cost of business capital for firms worldwide on three particularly...

In this paper we investigate the interaction between a credit portfolio and another risk type, which can be thought of as market risk. Combining Merton-like factor models for credit risk with linear factor models for market risk, we analytically calculate their interrisk correlation and show how...