the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting … models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve type forecasting models …

We propose a nonparametric test that distinguishes 'depressions' and 'booms' from ordinary recessions and expansions …. Depressions and booms are defined as coming from another underlying process than recessions and expansions. We find four … spread is not a leading indicator of depressions, in contrast to recessions. …

relate to the forecasting environment (which cannot be influenced by the forecasters). Among the variables capturing the … forecasting design (which can, by contrast, be influenced by the forecasters), the size of the dataset from which factors are … unbalanced panel, whether restrictions implied by the factor structure are imposed in the forecasting equation or not and whether …

represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …

macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an empirical application we demonstrate that these models turn out to be …

in the international data. The largest forecasting accuracy gains from including international predictors are at longer … forecast horizons. The forecasting performance achievable with the data-rich methods differs widely, with shrinkage methods and …