The Value at Risk of a portfolio differs from the sum of the Values at Risk of the portfolio's components. In this … paper, we analyze the problem of how a single economic risk figure for the Value at Risk of a hypothetical portfolio … portfolio. We assume a reduced-form model and neglect the effects of a potential bankruptcy of one of the banks. We analyze …

Outright bank failures without prior indication of financial instability are very rare. Supervisory authorities monitor … regarded as troubled to varying degrees before outright closure. But to our knowledge virtually all studies that predict bank … failures neglect the ordinal nature of bank distress. Exploiting the distress database of the Deutsche Bundesbank we …