Showing 1 - 10 of 68
We investigate the effects of official fiscal data and creative accounting signals on interest rate spreads between bond yields in the European Union. Our model predicts that risk premia contained in government bond spreads should increase in both, the official fiscal position and the expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083134
This study analyses whether expected budget deficits have an impact on interest rate swap spreads in France, Germany and Italy. We use monthly deficit forecasts from financial market participants to take the forward-looking behaviour of financial markets into account. Results of a SUR estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083224
We investigate the effect of fiscal institutions such as the strength of the finance minister in the budget process and deficits on interest spreads contained in bond yields of the countries now belonging to the Eurozone. Deficits significantly increase risk premia measured by relative swap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083235
expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations sporadically rather than … experts? inflation expectations, we find that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083127
Inflation expectations are often found to depend on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households, such … impact of three sources of the demographic dependence of inflation expectations using data for Germany. Overall, our findings …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957123
Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what … extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to … recovering households' implicit expectations of inflation from their consumption expenditures. We show that these implicit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083136
This paper revisits the Kareken-Wallace model of exchange rate formation in a two-country overlapping generations world. Following the seminal paper by Arifovic (Journal of Political Economy, 104, 1996, 510-541) we investigate a dynamic version of the model in which agents' decision rules are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083146
This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals' expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the … effect of information on expectations and realisations. Rationality is then tested and we seek to explain deviations of … realisations from expectations at a micro-economic level, possibly with reference to macroeconomic shocks. A bivariate regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083216
household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain … frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the … rates into their expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083250
While some of the recent surge of oil prices can be attributed to robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083274