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', using different versions of what we call factor-based mixed-data sampling (Factor-MIDAS) approaches. We compare all possible … combinations of factor estimation methods and Factor-MIDAS projections with respect to nowcast performance. Additionally, we …. Concerning the projections, the most parsimonious MIDAS projection performs best overall. Finally, quarterly models are in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083220
…cation in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g., monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models based on …This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model speci … curse of dimensionality. But if the restrictions imposed by MIDAS are too stringent, the MF-VAR can perform better. Hence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083259
-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with few predictors. The specification of these models requires several choices related to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083316
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083070
This paper compares two single-equation approaches from the recent nowcast literature: Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS … higher-frequency business cycle indicators. Three differences between the approaches are discussed: 1) MIDAS is a direct … multi-step nowcasting tool, whereas bridge equations are based on iterated forecasts; 2) MIDAS equations employ empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011093850
Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be accomplished if there are only very few errors available...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011124452
The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ considerably among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumption of constant interest rates, interest rates expected by market participants, or the central bank's own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010984733
Inflation expectations are often found to depend on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households, such as age, income and education, however, the reasons for this systematic heterogeneity are not yet fully understood. Since accounting for these expectation differentials could help...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957123
The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727826
Efficiency is considered a key factor when evaluating a bank's performance. Moreover, efficiency enhancement is an explicit policy objective in the Single Market Directive of the European Commission. But efficiency improvements may come at the expense of deteriorating bank profits and excessive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082751