This paper introduces a multivariate pure-jump Lévy process which allows for skewness and excess kurtosis of single asset returns and for asymptotic tail dependence in the multivariate setting. It is termed Variance Compound Gamma (VCG). The novelty of my approach is that, by applying a...

I introduce a novel, hierarchical model of tail dependent asset returns which can be particularly useful for measuring portfolio credit risk within the structural framework. To allow for a stronger dependence within sub-portfolios than between them, I utilise the concept of nested Archimedean...

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk...

Under the symmetric á-stable distributional assumption for the disturbances, Blattberg et al (1971) consider unbiased linear estimators for a regression model with non-stochastic regressors. We consider both the rate of convergence to the true value and the asymptotic distribution of the...

This paper introduces a stress test of the corporate credit portfolios of 24 large German banks by a two-stage approach: First, a macro-econometric model is used to forecast the impact of a substantial increase of the user cost of business capital for firms worldwide on three particularly...

In this paper we stress-test credit portfolios of 28 German banks based on a Mertontype multi-factor credit risk model. The ad-hoc stress scenario is an economic downturn in the automobile industry that constitutes an exceptional but plausible event suggested by historical data. Rather than on a...

In the work of the Basel Committee there has been a tradition of distinguishing market from credit risk and to treat both categories independently in the calculation of risk capital. In practice positions in a portfolio depend simultaneously on both market and credit risk factors. In this case,...

In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall...

In credit risk modelling, the correlation of unobservable asset returns is a crucial component for the measurement of portfolio risk. In this paper, we estimate asset correlations from monthly time series of Moody's KMV asset values for around 2,000 European firms from 1996 to 2004. We compare...

Results from portfolio models for credit risk tell us that loan concentration in certain industry sectors can substantially increase the value-at-risk (VaR). The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether a tractable "infection model" can provide a meaningful estimate of the impact of...