and disadvantages of the various output gap measures. First, I examine the usefulness of the output gap for inflation …

. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation …

revisions and model uncertainty affect the reliability of output gap estimates. We also compare Taylor type interest rate rules … type of interest rate rules. Finally, we analyze the implications of output gap uncertainty for monetary policy using a …

household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain … in high inflation countries are using higher best fitting constant gain parameters than those in low inflation countries … frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …

Recent work on policy rules under uncertainty have highlighted the impact of output gap measurement errors on economic … measurement problem, and we investigate the relative importance of model uncertainty to overall measurement uncertainty. …

employment and hours affecting inflation dynamics via marginal costs. We find that the response of unemployment and inflation to … persistent movements of aggregate inflation. Moreover, the impact of a monetary policy shock on unemployment and inflation …

The canonical New Keynesian model specifies inflation as the present-value of future real marginal cost. This paper … assess the model's ability to match the behavior of actual inflation. In accordance to the literature, the model fits Euro … data well at first sight. However, analyses of this kind disregard the considerable degree of uncertainty surrounding VAR …