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Laeven, Luc; Draghi, Mario; Dombret, Andreas R.; … - SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum; Deutsche …; … - 2016

On 3 December EY hosted a SUERF conference on banking reform with Sir Howard Davies, the Chairman of RBS, and Dame Colette Bowe, the Chairman of the Banking Standards Board, as the two keynote speakers. Professor David Miles (Imperial College) gave the SUERF 2015 Annual Lecture on Capital and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557140

The ESRB at 1

Gerlach, Stefan (ed.); Gnan, Ernest (ed.); Ulbrich, Jens (ed.) - Conference on ESRB at 1 <1, 2011, Berlin>; SUERF - The …; … - 2012

SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) took the opportunity of the first anniversary of this new institution to organise a joint conference in Berlin on 8-9 November 2011. The purpose of this event was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711529

A rental-equivalence index for owner-occupied housing in West Germany 1985 to 1998

Kurz, Claudia; Hoffmann, Johannes - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2004

In this paper, we review the German practice of imputing the costs of owner-occupied housing by increasing the relative … weight of actual rents in the CPI. As the structure of owner-occupied housing differs substantially from that of rental … housing, this variant of the imputation method may cause a bias in the German CPI. For assessing the appropriateness of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083156

Assessing house prices in Germany: Evidence from an estimated stock-flow model using regional data

Kajuth, Florian; Knetsch, Thomas A.; Pinkwart, Nicolas - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2013

Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market we estimate the relationship of house prices and explanatory … variation across local housing markets and overcomes time-series data limitations. We take the regression residuals as a measure …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957125

Seasonality in house prices

Kajuth, Florian; Schmidt, Tobias - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2011

importance. In the second part of the paper we employ a standard model of dynamic optimisation with housing demand and seasonal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009018202

Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany

Menz, Jan-Oliver; Poppitz, Philipp - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2013

Inflation expectations are often found to depend on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households, such as age, income and education, however, the reasons for this systematic heterogeneity are not yet fully understood. Since accounting for these expectation differentials could help...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957123

How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach

Ziegler, Christina; Eickmeier, Sandra - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2006

This paper surveys existing factor forecast applications for real economic activity and inflation by means of a meta-analysis and contributes to the current debate on the determinants of the forecast performance of large-scale dynamic factor models relative to other models. We find that, on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083176

Real-time forecasting of GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data

Schumacher, Christian; Breitung, Jörg - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2006

This paper discusses a factor model for estimating monthly GDP using a large number of monthly and quarterly time series in real-time. To take into account the different periodicities of the data and missing observations at the end of the sample, the factors are estimated by applying an EM...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083178

Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment

Wang, Mu-Chun - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2008

In this paper, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083198

Quantifying risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts

Knüppel, Malte; Tödter, Karl-Heinz - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2007

This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non-parametric procedures are developed. The former are based on a class of asymmetrically weighted normal distributions whereas the latter employ asymmetric bootstrap simulations. Both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083201