We use a unique data set that comprises each bank's bids in the Eurosystem's main refinancing operations and its … that a bank's willingness-to-pay is a good indicator for the probability that this bank draws on the LOLR facility. Our …

integrated micro-macro approach with two core virtues. First, we measure the probability of bank distress directly at the bank … level. Second, we integrate a microeconomic hazard model for bank distress and a standard macroeconomic model. The advantage … between bank distress and the real economy. We base the analysis on German bank and macro data between 1995 and 2004. Our …

-looking models; time-varying central-bank judgment about the state of model uncertainty; and so forth. We provide an algorithm for …

price setters to infer the central bank's future policy intentions, thereby making current inflation more responsive to … policy actions. This induces the central bank to pay more attention to inflation rather than output gap stabilization. Then …, transparency may be disadvantageous. It may actually be a policy-distorting straitjacket if the central bank enjoys low …

that the inflation bias can persist even when the central bank commits. A simple model is presented in which the central … bank precommits by setting the policy instrument, and the subsequent adjustment of inflation expectations is part of the … caused by uncertainty about the economic disturbances to which the central bank responds. Only perfect transparency about …