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The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy

Gerberding, Christina - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2001

darauf hin, dass sich die befragten Haushalte und Experten bei der Erwartungsbildung stark von früheren Prognosen und von der …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083244

Cash on trial, mk II : economics, technology and institutions

Birchler, Urs W. (ed., introduction); … - Cash on Trial <Veranstaltung> <2019, Frankfurt am Main>; … - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112413

Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro area option-implied inflation expectations and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?

Scharnagl, Michael; Stapf, Jelena - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2014

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957128

Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz; Kiraz, Fatma Burcu - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2006

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' implicit expectations of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083136

The ESRB at 1

Gerlach, Stefan (ed.); Gnan, Ernest (ed.); Ulbrich, Jens (ed.) - Conference on ESRB at 1 <1, 2011, Berlin>; SUERF - The …; … - 2012

SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) took the opportunity of the first anniversary of this new institution to organise a joint conference in Berlin on 8-9 November 2011. The purpose of this event was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711529

Time variation in macro-financial linkages

Prieto, Esteban; Eickmeier, Sandra; Marcellino, Massimiliano - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2013

We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to GDP growth in the US based on a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters estimated over 1958-2012. Our main findings are: (i) The contribution of financial shocks to GDP growth fluctuates from about 20 percent in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957086

Understanding global liquidity

Eickmeier, Sandra; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Hofmann, Boris - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2013

We explore the concept of global liquidity based on a factor model estimated using a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables from 24 advanced and emerging market economies. We measure global liquidity conditions based on the common global factors in the dynamics of liquidity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957104

A model of mortgage losses and its applications for macroprudential instruments

Hott, Christian - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2013

We develop a theoretical model of mortgage loss rates that evaluates their main underlying risk factors. Following the model, loss rates are positively influenced by the house price level, the loan-to-value of mortgages, interest rates, and the unemployment rate. They are negatively influenced...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957134

Asset Prices in Taylor Rules: Specification, Estimation, and Policy Implications for the ECB

Siklos, Pierre L.; Werner, Thomas; Bohl, Martin T. - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2004

This paper estimates standard and extended Taylor rules for core countries in the euro area, namely France, Germany and Italy, as well as for the ECB. Forward, backward and forecast-based rules are estimated for a variety of samples since the late 1970s. We are particularly interested in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083096

An estimated DSGE model for the German economy within the euro area

Pytlarczyk, Ernest - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2005

framework. In the estimation we utilize disaggregated information, employing single country data, along with the aggregated EMU … data by Fagan et. al (2001). We also contribute to the literature by proposing a strategy for consistent estimation of the … simple tworegion DSGE model, with a particular focus on analyzing the German economy within EMU, and its Bayesian estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083098