We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to infer a term structure of banking crisis risk from market data on bank stocks in daily frequency. Considering debt service payments with different maturities this term structure assigns a separate estimator for short- and long-term...

This paper introduces a multivariate pure-jump Lévy process which allows for skewness and excess kurtosis of single asset returns and for asymptotic tail dependence in the multivariate setting. It is termed Variance Compound Gamma (VCG). The novelty of my approach is that, by applying a...

Using a stochastic discount factor approach, we derive the exact solution for arbitrage-free bond yields for the case that the short-term interest rate follows a threshold process with the intercept switching endogenously. The yield functions, mapping the one-month rate into n-period yields,...

Life insurance companies are affected directly by the impact of the low-interestrate environment. To fulfil promised guarantees they may be forced to tap into their own funds, say if the current income generated is no longer sufficient to cover the policyholders' profit participation share as...

Die Lebensversicherer sind von den Auswirkungen des Niedrigzinsumfelds unmittelbar betroffen. Damit sie die zugesicherten Garantien erfüllen können, müssen sie unter Umständen Eigenmittel aufwenden. Dies ist dann der Fall, wenn die von den Unternehmen festgelegte Überschussbeteiligung oder...

The pattern of financial linkages is important in many areas of banking and finance. Yet bilateral linkages are often unknown, and maximum entropy serves as the leading method for estimating unobserved counterparty exposures. This paper proposes an efficient alternative that combines...

We introduce an innovative theoretical framework for the valuation and replication of derivative transactions between defaultable entities based on the principle of arbitrage freedom. Our framework extends the traditional formulations based on credit and debit valuation adjustments (CVA and...

We estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities...

Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...

I introduce a novel, hierarchical model of tail dependent asset returns which can be particularly useful for measuring portfolio credit risk within the structural framework. To allow for a stronger dependence within sub-portfolios than between them, I utilise the concept of nested Archimedean...